Just How Bad Could It Get for the Loons?
The floor gets lower and lower every day
I am a perpetual off-season optimist and this year in particular I’ve chosen to eschew the annual #PANIC season. But recently, there’s been this nagging at the back of the mind: yes, the Loons have a really good core, but could they also be wooden spoon contenders? Last week’s Minnesota United Jeremiad from Jeff Rueter for The Athletic was sobering and not for any particular news in it, but for seeing the tire fire captured so succinctly. Which leads us to the question, just how bad might it all get?
The prevailing belief about the Loons right now (which I still mostly subscribe to) is that they are a few key signings away from letting Lod, Reynoso, Pukki, and Bongi Fab Four their way to glory (For the record: Rey=John, Bongi=Paul, Lod=Ringo, Pukki=George). Furthermore, while going into preseason without a coach or any sporting staff whatsoever isn’t ideal, it’s MLS! everyone gets into the playoffs and all you have to do is figure things out by August and Bob’s-Your-Uncle you've got an MLS Cup.
We should keep in mind that the Loons’ schedule is going to be brutal. Last year, they benefited from playing East Coast teams at the bottom end of the table: their EC opposition’s average position was 9.14 and only 3 of their 7 Eastern opponents finished in the playoff spots. Compare that to this season where in their first 5 matches the Loons meet the 3rd, 2nd, and 4th place teams from last year’s East. The average position of their Eastern opponents was 5.2 and only 1 of the teams missed the playoffs last season.
While it’s true that the West is generally far more mediocre, most of our peers have made solid acquisitions while the Loons are on their second interim manager and just signed a third squad right back.
Let’s talk about the empty chairs in the sporting office. The interim manager has left, leaving the interim interim manager position taken by the head of the academy. The Sporting Director is still waiting on a work visa 90 days after being hired. There are no assistant coaches, no scouts (there is the previous assistant technical director), and the team even needs a new kit man. But it’s that head coach position that worries everyone. There appears to be a non-zero chance that the team doesn’t just go into the season without a head coach, but that we’re in Lord of the Flies territory until June.
While a new manager could certainly come in and set the team straight in the business end of the season, imagine how things are going to look if the Loons go into June having played 15 matches and sitting at the bottom of the table with 9 points. What’s more: they’re desperately trying to coax players to come for a club drifting in the night like a ghost ship. Things could get very, very bad.
Every day that the sporting director isn’t in Minnesota and the club goes without a head coach, the floor on the season drops a little bit lower. Things could get pretty dark indeed. And this is before we imagine any garden variety calamities like season-ending injuries or stars simply not showing up to play.
I couldn’t single out one of the recent MNUFC decisions that has created this decision. They obviously think Khaled El-Ahmad was better than all of the other options and if he’s that good, then waiting for him to play out his contract isn’t the end of the world. And it’s not the end of the world to wait until you can really get your optimal head coach, especially if they can sign someone outside of the usual suspect bozos who are considered for every gig in MLS. But the problems are compounding. And really each of them is just compounding from the original sin of handing the entire sporting side of the club over to a guy who hires his kid to do all the scouting. It turns out that it isn’t easy to undo the damage of treating the technical part of the organization like a Quibi version of Succession.
And it means that 2024 might just be a throw away season for the Loons.
Will it? I am maintaining my general air of optimism about the club, mostly because I just want to see Lod and Bongi on the pitch together. But I think I would put it 50/50 that the Loons never break into the playoff race this season. I think their floor is among the lowest in the West.