Predicting 2024 for the Loons

A Minnesota United Preview

When Minnesota United let go its head coach and sporting director, Adrian Heath, before the end of the 2023 season, they had a lot of work on their hands. I wrote toward the end of 2023 about the big hole the team had dug themselves into and the potential ways out. And then as the winter dragged on and on, it felt like the floor of the Loons’ 2024 season could be dropping lower and lower.

What will 2024 look like for the Loons? I’m predicting a 6th place finish. I think they could finish as high as 4th and as low as 9th (barring a major injury to Reynoso).

Coaching

The team eventually did get their new sporting director, Khaled El-Ahmad, in town and working. And just this morning (I appreciate the timing, y’all, since I planned to sit down and write a preview today), news broke that the Loons are closing in on Wunderkind Eric Ramsay as only the second coach in their MLS era.

What do we know about Ramsay? Well, his Wikipedia page is 1/3 the length of Captain Wil Trapp’s. Manchester Evening News wrote a bit of a puff piece about Ramsay that was just short of following him to the local animal shelter for his daily volunteering shift. But what we can learn from it: he’s been involved in some high pressure locker rooms like Manchester United’s and the Wales National team. He started at the bottom in Man U’s staff and after a short while was well-integrated into the first team training. He was a set piece coach (Iron Skillet!). He speaks Spanish fluently (Wikipedia says French as well). And he’s got a great whistle. (I actually don’t doubt this is a useful skill, but this portion of the article still gives me a little joy).

The team has obviously spoken to local journalists about their desire to play with youth and to play a high press. However, I tend to look askance at comments like these (no one ever comes into these roles and says, “I wanna rely on some grizzled vets, play a low block, and let our number ten run free”). When you’ve put together one of the worst academies in the league and have a front line manned by older players who don’t particularly like to press (Rey), it’s hard to think that in 2024 we’ll see the fruits of this vision.

But I don’t want to prognosticate on what the next few years with El-Ahmad and Ramsay will look like, I want to think about 2024. With the caveat that—again—we don’t know jack shit about Ramsay, I suspect that he’s not going to come into a team, having missed the entire preseason and then suddenly start shaking up the tactics. So far, Interim to the Interim Head Coach (*heavy toke* I mean, let’s face it, aren’t they all interim in some sense ) Cam Knowles has opted for the very pragmatic preseason approach of keeping the tactics and lineup as close to the past as possible. Consensus from dummies like me is that the team wasn’t fundamentally broken, but needs a lot of work. I suspect that for at least the first half of the season, we’ll see Ramsay roll out a pretty similar lineup to previous incarnations of the Loons.

Lineup

On Saturday, fans got a glimpse at what the lineup for the Loons might be. Both Bongi and Rey were off injured, so we saw Fragapane drafted onto the left and Jeong to the right. If Rey is unfit for the season opener, Lod will be his most likely understudy.

Here, I’ll put what I think is the optimal First XI at this point.

Lod’s return to the Loons’ lineup is a welcome relief, but poses a big question for Ramsay. The Finn has been used as a left winger, a right inside forward, a number 10, a false 9, and as an 8. Bongi’s emergence in 2023 (and less versatility) means that the right hand side is probably spoken for. I think the most likely spot for him to land is the midfield. The disadvantage is that you sacrifice some of his goal-scoring so that you can get his tenacity. When he has played in the center of the pitch, he adds a doggedness that our other midfielders often lack.

In this lineup, Dotson would at times drift to the left to provide cover and move into the space Rey leaves open as he flits about the field. Lod would also push forward into the space behind Pukki when Rey is out on the left.

The other likely scenario is that Lod and Jeong get used out on the left with Reynoso in his traditional central role. I would argue that with the amount of movement between Reynoso, Lod, and Dotson, this is essentially the same as the lineup above. However, I understand that people will weep blood if they look too long at the first lineup.

But here are the big question marks:

Sang Bin Jeong. Jeong and Tani Oluwaseyi are our only back up strikers and one of them is going to have to play that understudy well enough to bag 6-8 goals. Jeong can also be used on the left and if he came through, that would be a big help to the squad, which is threadbare in that spot. Jeong didn’t have a great 2023, but I give every international player at least half a year before I start judging. Will he break out in 2024 or have we already seen his limits? Sub-question mark: what role will Caden Clark play?

Victor Eriksson. We didn’t see “The Wiking” start in the preseason match. That could because he’s not as fit. It could be because Boxy still has lots of juice in the tank. It could be because Knowles didn’t want to shake anything up and wanted Boxy’s leadership. It could be because Eriksson isn’t ready. It could be because Eriksson looked at Knowles wrong.

The point being, the Loons have four centerbacks with Tapias, Boxy, Eriksson, and fantastically nomenclatured Hugo Bacharach. Tapias has been solid—unremarkable maybe, but he is well-practiced in the arts of prison yard shivving. Boxy did show some signs of age last season, but often that was a problem solved by having a stronger midfield that doesn’t let it become a foot race. So will Ramsay come in and see something in Eriksson? How will he manage that transition and how quickly might it happen?

Fullbacks. Joseph Rosales seems to be the first choice left back going into the season. He played there to mixed reviews in the past, but it still feels risky to be reliant on a converted midfielder. Homegrown Devin Padelford also saw some time in that spot last season. When I had seen him play a cup game and some MNUFC2 matches, I didn’t rate him at all, but I thought he took a step up in 2023. The problems here are compounded by a lack of a solid left wing option for cover and I think Trapp’s Defensive Midfield work often lacks the Defensive part.

On the right, we have DJ Taylor and Zarek Valentin. I rate Taylor a bit higher than a lot of Loons fans, but I think there is widespread agreement that we either need to see him take another step up defensively and putting in more useful crosses or we need to sign someone better in this spot. Inter Miami need to get rid of Deandre Yedlin. Just Saying.

Prediction

I got a good chuckle reading over the predictions by the Realtors at MLS Dot Com, where there seems to be consensus that Loons will be crap. Without being completely rude, I think everyone who puts Minnesota at 12-14 show a kind of embarrassing laziness. Our comrade Matt Doyle, on the other hand, has been freebasing the dank Bongi love I’ve been sending him and he’s putting Loons at 4th. His logic is this:

1. The Western Conference is bad. It takes a MASSIVE rake-to-face season to finish at the bottom. But also you just have to be a bit special or a bit organized (the RSL method) to finish in that top 6. No one else has a Reynoso and Reynoso isn’t just good, he is Leo Messi’s numbers good. If he stays fit and plays like 2023, Loons will be just fine.

2. The rest of the attack is potent as hell. Aside from Rey, you have Pukki, Bongi, and Lod and all of these guys are unheralded talents in the league. We’ve never seen a Loons squad with all of them cooking.

3. That’s it. Who cares if your defense is made of spitballs and mayonaise?

Now, all of these pundits (who, to be clear, are not the licensed realtors like Doyle and Wiebe) will point to the fact that Loons don’t have a manager. Sure. But another thing to remember is that teams can spend March through May eating bon bons and then they show up in June, work off the bon bons, and bob’s your uncle you’re in the playoffs on a hot streak.

So what do I think? I am not as optimistic as Doyle. I think that the Loons have a very difficult start with maybe two points from five games. And then I think the Loons get going and they finish 6th place. I think the range they’ll hit is 4th-9th. I think they’re just way too good to finish below 9th and I think they’re not solid enough to finish in the top three. (All of this comes with the massive asterisk that Reynoso is fit for at least 3/4 of the season).

However, I think it’s important we take the first games seriously. Austin might be a bad team, but it’s an away game, so difficult no matter what. What worries me though is a run through: MLS Champions Columbus, Orlando, LAFC, and Philly. That is a brutal way to start the season and what will be the reaction? Will our team panic at a disastrous start? Will Ramsay react well?

One of the hallmarks of Minnesota United is patience. Perhaps it was too patient with Adrian Heath, but the ownership never freaked out even in the three or four disastrous runs. So I don’t think them losing patience too early with Ramsay, but it certainly won’t be an easy gig to settle into.